ICTP recently held a workshop to examine what the Centre could do to help scientists better understand and reduce the impacts of earth-shattering tsunamis.

Tsunami Physics

On a languid sunny morning in late December 2004, nature unexpectedly displayed its raw power with devastating effect when a giant magnitude 9.3 earthquake ruptured a 1000-kilometre-long section of the sea bed in the Indian Ocean.
The earthquake---the largest ever recorded in the region and the world's most powerful since a 1960 giant earthquake in Chile---generated a seismic sea wave that rapidly reached the speed of a jet airliner. The wave's ferocious force and towering crest left a trail of death and destruction stretching across 12 coastal nations (including Tanzania, some 6000 kilometres from the earthquake's epicentre near the island nation of Sumatra). Nearly 300,000 people died.
While knowledge of science and technology continues to increase at an accelerated rate, the tsunami showed that when it comes to primal forces, nature, not humankind, still rules.
Earthquake detection centres in Hawaii and Japan did detect a sizeable shock that fateful morning. But scientists at these centres and elsewhere could not determine the full force of the event. And even those few scientists who feared that a disaster was about to strike were handicapped by poor communications with their counterparts in southeast Asia.
In the aftermath of the tsunami tragedy, seismologists have gathered in a variety of fora across the globe to assess what happened and, equally important, examine what measures the scientific community could take to help ensure that the next tsunami does not wreak such deadly havoc.
On 24 March, ICTP, in cooperation with the University of Trieste and Italy's National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS), hosted a one-day workshop titled Tsunami Physics and Preparedness.
The purpose of the workshop was twofold: first, to examine what scientists know about the physical forces that drive tsunamis and to explore the warning and mitigation measures that have been---or will soon be---put in place to help reduce the potential risks posed by the next tsunami. And second, to discuss the state of knowledge and expertise concerning tsunamis here in the Adriatic region.
While giant tidal waves are rare occurrences everywhere---and particularly in the seas surrounding Italy---they do happen. In 1511, for example, a tidal wave swept across Venice's lagoons causing water levels in the canals to rise above the first floors of the city's homes and shops, leaving a pathway of destruction in its wake.
Outside speakers at the ICTP workshop included François Schindele, UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Paris; Steven Ward, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California at Santa Cruz, USA; and Lareef Zubair, Sri Lanka Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology Network and The Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA.
Speakers from Trieste's scientific community included Claudio Tuniz, ICTP; Fabio Romanelli and Elpidio Caroni, University of Trieste; and Renzo Mosetti, OGS.
At the conclusion of the workshop, participants issued a communiqué calling on international organisations "to make use of ICTP's facilities and expertise for the purposes of mitigating all aspects of tsunami disasters, particularly through research, prediction enhancement, hazard assessment, preparedness, detection and warning." These organisations include both UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, which has taken the lead in seeking to develop a global multipurpose warning system, and UNESCO's member states involved in the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System, which are seeking to develop a regional tsunami warning system in the area that was devastated by the December tsunami.
For its part, ICTP pledged to organise a targeted training activity tentatively titled "The Physics of Tsunamis: Warning and Mitigation," beginning in 2006. The activity, which will be coordinated with UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, will seek to keep researchers abreast of the most recent scientific advances in the understanding, prediction and mitigation of tsunamis and their impacts. The activity is expected to last two to four weeks and, like other ICTP activities, will consist of lectures, laboratory exercises and project work. The individual and institutional networks that are ultimately created will help nurture future generations of scientists interested in studying tsunamis.
As last December's disaster in the Indian Ocean tragically showed, there is a great need for scientists worldwide to share advanced research findings, knowledge and information on the risks posed by tsunamis, and to develop in-depth assessments of initiatives designed to mitigate such risks. ICTP with its world-class research facilities and internationally recognised experience in the training of scientists from the developing world stands ready to assist global efforts to thwart the devastating wrath of the next tsunami.

Karim Aoudia
ICTP Structure and Nonlinear Dynamics
of the Earth (SAND) Group

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