Under the umbrella of the SAND group, Indian and Italian scientists have joined efforts to examine one of the world's most destructive forces: earthquakes.

Seismic Changes...
One Step at a Time

In the early morning hours of 26 November 1997, two moderate earthquakes, the first 5.7 in magnitude and the second 6.1, rattled the Italian hill provinces of Umbria and Marche, located in central Italy about 150 kilometers northeast of Rome. The event marked the first of a series of earthquakes that would continue to rumble across the region for the next six weeks--not only disrupting one of Italy's most picturesque areas but also fraying the nerves of the more than 100,000 people who live there. Ten deaths and US$10 million in damages would mark the earthquake's toll. Yet the world's most enduring image of this tragedy would be the collapsed roof of the Basilica of Saint Francis of Assisi, which left a heap of rubble on the church floor containing jagged puzzle pieces of one of the Western world's great artistic treasures: 13th century frescoes by the famed artist Giotto.
On 26 January 2001, a much stronger earthquake, 7.6 in magnitude, struck the Indian state of Gujarat in the northeast corner of the world's second most populous nation. The earthquake, which took place on the Indian national holiday of Republic Day, was felt throughout northwestern India, western Nepal and much of Pakistan. As the Indian government sought to cope with the catastrophe, it was soon evident that this earthquake would be the worst natural disaster in India since the nation had achieved independence in 1949. More than 20,000 people died, 165,000 were injured, and hundreds of thousands more left homeless. Experts estimate the recovery and reconstruction efforts will cost more than US$5 billion.
"We tend to think of earthquakes as unusual events--and thank goodness they are not everyday occurrences," says Giuliano Panza, head of the Structure and Non-Linear Dynamics of the Earth (SAND) group, which is an ICTP hosted activity. "But earthquakes are much more common than most people realise. For example, between the 1997 earthquake in Umbria/Marche and the 2001 earthquake in Gujarat, we experienced 16 major seismological events worldwide, including earthquakes in Afghanistan, Turkey, Colombia and Taiwan." And since the earthquake in India less than six months ago, in February a major earthquake in El Salvador killed at least 1100 people and left more than 1 million people homeless in that poor Central American country, and in March a moderate earthquake in Japan caused millions of dollars in damages. As Panza notes, "it's part of the human condition to be crushed and buried by earthquakes."
As Panza also points out, earthquakes may be "global phenomena but their severity and impact are often determined by local and regional conditions." For this reason, he says, "modelling may be an effective strategy for assessing both the prospects for a seismological event and the potential dangers likely to be experienced if an earthquake of a certain magnitude were to strike."
For the past decade, Panza, with the help of Abdelkrim Aoudia and other colleagues associated with the SAND group and the University of Trieste's Department of Earth Sciences, has developed and refined scenario-based models that have enabled scientists to better understand the anticipated behaviour of the Earth in such seismically active regions as central Italy and northwest India. "In effect," Panza notes, "the models help us envision what may happen without waiting for an earthquake to occur."
"Over time, we have acquired a great deal of knowledge about the Earth's geology," adds Aoudia, "that can be put to good use together with theoretical insights concerning the Earth's dynamical behaviour." Marrying observed data to theoretical constructs, and then testing the conclusions against the Earth's complex movements during a seismological event, has helped the SAND group to draw increasingly more reliable pictures of what may occur during future earthquakes. The goal of the seismological modelling process is not much different than what climatologists and meteorologists are doing with increasing confidence in projecting future changes in climate and weather.
Panza and his colleagues recently brought their modelling expertise to India as part of the first-ever Indo-Italian Workshop on Seismic Risk Evaluations, held in Hyderabad, 6-9 March 2001. He was accompanied by Aoudia and a number of other scientists from ICTP and the University of Trieste and other Italian research institutions. Those traveling to India with Panza included Roberto Sabadin, University of Milan; Fabrizio Mollaioli, University of Rome; Peter Suhadolc and Fabio Romanelli, University of Trieste; Giacomo Di Pasquale, National Seismic Survey; and Leonello Serva, Italian National Environmental Protection Agency.
The Italian contingent was joined by a group of some 30 Indian scientists, including seismologists, geologists and geotechnical engineers. Among those in attendance were Vinod Gaur, scientist emeritus, Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS), Bangalore, who is one of the true pioneers in seismology research in his home country, and Harsh Gupta, former director of the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) and presently secretary to the government of India in the Department of Ocean Development.
"Modelling methodologies served as the organising principle of the workshop," explains Aoudia, "but on a more general level we discussed such topics as the development of seismological observational networks and geo-databases, the underlying principles and goals of hazard assessments, and the current state of research on seismic microzonation and seismic vulnerability."

Indo-Italian Workshop on Seismic Risk Evaluations

"The Indo-Italian workshop had been conceived and planned under the protocol of cooperation between the two countries," says Satish Bhatia, deputy director and head, Earthquake Hazard Assessment Group at NGRI. "The schedule, in fact, was finalised in early January 2001. However, the earthquake later that month in Gujarat made the workshop an even more timely event."
Bhatia also says that "overall India has a reasonably good number of well-trained and experienced seismologists but their numbers need to be expanded and their training strengthened to address the full range of seismological and emergency management issues that our nation face."
"After a brief initial period of shock and disbelief," he notes, "the rescue and recovery efforts in the area struck by the earthquake in Gujarat proved to be the most effective in the history of such emergencies in our country. While the scope of devastation and despair cannot be understated, the government, with the help of local grassroots organisations and other national as well as some international agencies, made an extraordinary effort in dealing with such a devastating situation."
The nation's risk management and mitigation efforts will receive another boost later this year when an Earthquake Risk Evaluation Centre (EREC), which has been in the planning stages for some time, becomes operational.
"The institution," Bhatia says, "is designed to be a centre of excellence in all phases of seismological research. For example, researchers will conduct state-of-the-art studies of earthquake-prone areas and develop seismic hazard and vulnerability maps based on the most up-to-date information and techniques."
The Indo-Italian workshop not only gave participants an opportunity to learn more about each other's work but also provided a platform for developing future joint activities. Three topics selected to receive special attention from the emerging Indo-Italian seismological network are:
(1) Microzonation of selected cities in India, coordinated by the Geological Survey of India and the University of Trieste's Department of Earth Sciences.
(2) Site-specific seismic hazard assessment in megacities using the most advanced modelling techniques, coordinated by the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad, and the University of Trieste's Department of Earth Sciences.
(3) Estimation of vulnerability and seismic risk assessment for megacities of high hazard, coordinated by the Building Materials Technology Promotion Centre (BMTPC), Delhi, and the University of Rome La Sapienza.
Each of these activities, which will involve an exchange of visits among scientists in Italy and India, will include the direct participation of the SAND group. The effort is expected to get off the ground sometime next year and a report on the progress that has been made as a result of these cooperative research ventures will be presented at the International Geological Congress in Florence, Italy, in 2004.
As Panza observes: "We no longer have to wait for an earthquake to take place and then measure the ground motion to assess its impact. We can now use geological and geophysical data to model seismograms based on theoretical insights and assessments."
That's the goal both Indian and Italian scientists hope to advance in the years ahead as they work together to better understand the awesome physical forces responsible for violent shifts in the Earth's crust.

For additional information about the Indo-Italian network and, more generally, the SAND group, please contact panza@ictp.trieste.it or browse the group's homepage at www.ictp.it/sand.

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