ICTP scientist Filippo Giorgi examines the current state of knowledge on climate change and the importance of the issue to the developing world.

Climate Change
in the Developing World

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), recently issued its Third Assessment Report on the Science of Climate Change. Scientists and policymakers worldwide view this 1000-page monograph as the most authoritative assessment of the current state of knowledge on issues related to global climate change.
The report, which contains a number of important conclusions, was approved by more than 100 nations attending the IPCC Plenary Meeting of Working Group 1, held in Shanghai, China, between 17-20 January.
The first and most significant conclusion is that, on a global scale, the Earth's surface warmed by about 0.6°C in the 20th century. Moreover, new and more convincing evidence shows that most of the warming over the past 50 years can be attributed to human activities associated with fossil fuel combustion. Such activities have resulted in widespread emissions of greenhouse gases, most notably carbon dioxide.
Other key conclusions in the IPCC report also present a picture of a warming world. These conclusions, based on state-of-the-art scientific research and analyses, include irrefutable evidence of widespread persistent retreat of glaciers, snow cover and ice sheets, as well as a relentless rise in sea levels.
In short, more than ever, the global scientific community now agrees that continued emissions of greenhouse gases as a consequence of human activities will significantly modify the Earth's climate in the coming decades.
For example, projections of climatic changes due to anthropogenic activities suggest a possible warming by the latter decades of the 21st century of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C. That's a projected rate of warming unprecedented in the known history of the Earth's climate. Sea levels, moreover, are expected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters, which would place many coastal areas at risk. In addition to reductions in the size of glaciers, sea ice and snow cover, the IPCC report anticipates increases in precipitation intensity, changes in regional precipitation patterns, and widespread mid-continental summer drying of the soil.

An island coastline of the Maldives now (left) and five years ago (right)
offers dramatic evidence of the effect of rising seas

How will these climate modifications affect human societies? This is a critical question because climatic changes can have dramatic impact on a broad range of fundamental human activities, including agricultural production, water and energy management, human health, coastal development, fishing and recreation. Climate change can also affect natural ecosystems, such as coral reefs and mountain habitats. In addition, the frequency and intensity of such extreme, often catastrophic, weather events as hurricanes, floods and droughts are expected to rise significantly in many regions as a result of global climate change.
For all these reasons, it is clear that the issue of climate change cannot be ignored by the public or private sectors either in the developed or developing world. While manufacturing practices and consumption patterns in countries in the North over the past century and a half may be largely responsible for the problem, future issues related to climate change are likely to prove particularly difficult for developing countries.
Why is this so? Because countries in the South, many of which are located in tropical regions, will be most vulnerable to possible changes in climatic patterns. In addition, they do not have sufficient resources or expertise to deal with these problems.
For example, scientists estimate that a sea level rise of the order of half a meter would endanger more than 15 million people living in coastal areas of Bangladesh. Large sea level rise would also place many small ocean islands--for instance, Antigua, Fiji, the Maldives and Tonga--at risk. Increases in surface temperature and associated soil drying, moreover, could reduce agricultural productivity in many already food-insecure sub-Saharan African countries, where irrigation is not widely used and water supplies are critically dependent on precipitation patterns. Atmospheric warming may also lead to the spread of vector-borne diseases, most noticeably malaria, in many of the world's tropical zones.
The bottom line is this: While global change is a problem that has been created mostly by industrialised nations, its consequences are likely to be most keenly experienced in developing nations. Yet, despite growing recognition among experts and policymakers that developing countries are the most vulnerable to projected changes in climate, global-change research sorely lags in most of these countries (except for several emerging developing countries, including China, Brazil and India). For example, of the several hundred authors and contributors to the assessment report, only 10 to 15 percent come from developing countries.
What are the reasons for the developing world's lack of participation in what may be the largest global research enterprise ever undertaken? Lack of adequate infrastructures is certainly one. State-of-the-art climate research requires access to powerful computing resources that are generally lacking in developing countries.
Lack of research and training is another. While a long-standing tradition of research and training in mathematics and theoretical physics can be found in many developing countries, research and training in more recent fields like climate research are generally not very advanced. In fact, in many countries, it is even difficult to find university-level courses in basic meteorology and climatology. The reality is that there are many prominent scientists from developing countries in atmospheric physics and dynamics but most reside and work in the United States or Europe.
Given the situation, it is important that developing countries develop their own indigenous know-how on climate change and related impacts through research and training programs. Without their own team of experts, the delicate position of these countries concerning global change issues will be based on information provided by outside scientists. Such information may not always be relevant to the climate change challenges faced by developing nations.
That could be a problem not just for the South but for the North as well. A critical global environmental issue such as climate change, after all, requires a truly global response. Stated more directly and ominously, meaningful participation from the developing world is essential if meaningful solutions to the problems associated with climate change are to be found.

A summary of the Third Assessment Report on the Science of Climate Change may be found at www.ipcc.ch.

Filippo Giorgi
Head, ICTP Physics of Weather and Climate Group

GROUP ACTIVITY

The ICTP Physics of Weather and Climate group, established in 1998, has focussed its research and training activities on the development and testing of limited area climate models and the refinement and verification of a simplified atmospheric general circulation model. Issues related to seasonal predictability, climate-chemistry aerosol interactions, uncertainties in regional climate change predictions, interannual and interdecadal climate variability in the 20th century, and the predictability of Asian monsoon circulation have shaped its research agenda. The group maintains and distributes two models, the RegCM and Eta, for scientists, particularly those from the developing world, who are interested in limited area modeling; maintains several datasets that are made available to outside researchers, especially those from the developing world; and participates in the European Union's (EU) PROMISE programme on natural and anthropogenic climate change in tropical regions. ICTP climate-related training activities in 2001 include a Summer Colloquium on Land-Atmospheric Interactions and the Hydrological Cycle and a two-part advanced Course on Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region. The group has developed strong partnerships with, among others, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). For additional information about the ICTP Physics of Weather and Climate Group, please see the group's homepage at www.ictp.it/~pwc.

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